With the U.S. now firmly in recession, Syntagma looks at the causes of this spectacular downturn and speculates that the Iraq war may have a lot to do with it.

“The American economy is now in recession. A slew of new data clearly reveals both a marked downturn in activity, combined with a rise in inflation — something not seen since the stubborn “stagflation” period of the 1970s. Some economists expect a robust return to growth later in the year off the backs of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed…”

Read the article here.

In another piece today, our sister site examines banks’ attitude to risk and how securitization let the side down, handing huge advantages to authoritarian Asian regimes.

“In the old days, banks took the risk of lending money on themselves and ensured that borrowers would be able to pay it back over time. Securitization means that they can lend to any Tom, Dick or Harriet, package up the debts into large parcels of small slices from many borrowers, and sell them onto other banks and finance houses.”

Read the article here.

In a move designed to make money, said the “Sage of Omaha”, legendary investor Warren Buffett has offered to underwrite $800 billion (£400bn) of U.S. municipal bonds.

The offer goes to three “monoline” bond insurers, Ambac Financial, MBIA and Financial Guaranty Insurance. One has already rejected the deal, and he is still awaiting reponses from the other two, although one of them is making favourable noises.

The move certainly perked up global stock markets yesterday, as the monolines are seen as the second line of defence against the sub-prime mortgage fiasco by propping up banks’ balance sheets in the event of meltdown.

Traditionally, the bond insurers mainly concentrate on municipal risk, but they too got caught up in the collective madness of sub-prime lending for the same reason respectable banks did : greed for perceived easy money.

However, the monolines are now short of capital and are being hit by downgrades from the rating agencies.

T J Marta, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said it was a coup for bond insurers, which could help them avoid “the doomsday scenario”.

Let us hope so.