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The Money Log

Trading suspended after LSE computer crash

Crash Trading on the LSE’s electronic platform was shut down this morning on one of its busiest days of the year.

The timing of the shutdown is unfortunate for the LSE, which is facing increased competition from rival trading platforms such as Turquoise, a Europe-wide platform set up by a number of the world’s biggest investment banks.

Another rival, Chi-X, claims to have taken over 15 percent of trading in FTSE 100 stocks recently.

To counteract the challenge, the LSE slashed trading fees at the start of this month in response to a partial launch of Turquoise, which is not due to start trading proper until October.

Today’s debacle was thought by the BBC’s Business Editor Robert Peston, to have serious consequences for the exchange. A great deal of money was tied up in the system, money that could not be used in a rapidly rising market.

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British housing market in 20 year slump

Housing Market The British housing market could take 20 years to recover says one of the City of London’s leading investment banks.

In a note to clients, Mark Hake, an analyst at Merrill Lynch said ” … it looks significantly worse [than the 1990 downturn], with house prices falling faster and further and very little recovery in real terms expected over 20 years. … House prices are expected to be below their August 2007 peak in a further 10 years’ time.”

The investment bank forecasts house prices to fall 17 per cent this year, while inflation is set to continue its upward march in coming months as the economy absorbs the effects of higher oil and food prices.

If that were not bad enough, David Kern, economic advisor to the British Chambers of Commerce, thinks unemployment will rise to nearly two million by the end of 2009. He commented, “The results of this survey signal a menacing deterioration in UK prospects We are now facing serious risks of recession. London appears pretty weak and it’s across the board. Businesses are in a lose-lose situation. Falling demand and the squeeze on consumer disposable incomes will limit how far prices can be increased.”

With Nicola Horlick warning us off shares for three years, there aren’t many places left to put our funds.

As RBS’s credit analyst said last week, cash is the only safe haven now.

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If inflation is now the real enemy, who causes it?

Inflation After finally ridding the British economy of its endemic postwar inflation, the current UK government seems to be slipping back into its old ways.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) recently said, “Pay awards in both the public and private sectors have got to be consistent with our inflation target of two per cent.” His reasoning is that if pay rises were higher, prices would go up and consume the value of higher pay.

A former Conservative Health Minister, who knew a thing or two about economics had this to say on the same subject, “Of course when there is inflation, prices rise, including wages, which are the price of labour. That is what inflation means; the statement is a mere definition. But it is as absurd to say that inflation occurs because prices rise as to say that it rains because the ground gets wet. You cannot have rainfall without the ground becoming wet; the one is inseparable from the other; but we do not mistake the result for the cause.”

His alternative to Labour’s prices and incomes policy approach would be to take money out of circulation by the government spending less or the Bank raising interest rates, or a combination of both.

In Britain, growth is at present around 2pc, and is likely to fall to about 1.3pc in the coming year. Inflation, according to government approved figures is about 3.5 per cent. That gives a total of 4.8pc.

Compare that to a rise in money supply (M4) of 12pc and the cat is out of the bag.

Inflation is caused by having too much money chasing too few goods. And it’s the government that injects that money into circulation, partly by excessive borrowing.

Plus ca change …

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Moneyizor – new money site

Moneyizor

Syntagma Media has just relaunched Moneyizor.com as a tracker of the hottest topic of the moment : macroeconomics. Think “credit crunch”, “global financial meltdown”, “economy falling off a cliff”, “new Great Depression”, and your adrenalin may just kick in.

The financial news has been so alarming since last summer, Moneyizor has been changed from a magazine-type portal to become a vehicle for this crucial topic.

“On the day when the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, reported a staggering 2.5pc drop in house prices in March alone, the IMF warns governments, central banks and regulators that they now face a test of their mettle unique in modern times.”

Make sure you keep up to date on Credit Crunch technicalities with Moneyizor.

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