Is a worldwide recession already underway?

The Chief Economist of U.S invesment bank Merrill Lynch believes so. According to his analysis America is now into the first month of a recession, defined as two successive months of negative growth.

Other commentators think it could be longer than that, while some, like Irwin Steltzer, speaking on the BBC’s Newsnight, believes sovereign wealth funds will allow the banks to re-establish their balance sheets and avoid a banking crisis.

For an analysis of the coming recession on both sides of the Atlantic see John Evans’s article in Syntagma.

He writes, “All banks are now hoarding cash like Ebeneezer Scrooge on a bad day and virtually ceasing to lend. With house price indices slithering down a slope like novice ice skaters, and inter-bank rates running at around 8 percent, this has become a total banking crisis worldwide, and that has the potential for real evil in our economies.”

Read the article here.

We will shortly publish an updated piece on how to avoid the worst effects of a recession in your personal finances.

If you are a small business owner, or work for one, you may like to read a post on how to cope with the likelihood of a forthcoming recession — even worldwide depression.

“Clearly, we’re in for the roughest of rides over the next two years, and possibly longer. Although interest rates are tumbling and will continue to do so, even in the eurozone, the increasing lack of liquidity around the world as banks horde cash, Scrooge-like, will permit little flexibility.”

Of course, some people get rich in the harshest of climates by betting on market falls. Given that it’s the new markets in financial instruments and derivatives that started this off in the first place, it’s ironic that some savvy souls will probably make billions out of other people’s misery.

Read the post in Small Business Booster.

British people were told yesterday that the personal data of nearly half the nation has “gone missing”. In the newly merged department of Inland Revenue and Customs, a “junior official” downloaded the personal details, including bank account data and National Insurance numbers, of 25 million people and placed all of it on two unencrypted CDs.

The official then put the CDs in an envelope and posted it. The package wasn’t even registered so couldn’t be tracked or traced. It’s now officially “lost in the post”.

Alternatively, it may have been stolen to order by organized crime. We have been told, the official is now under guard in a “safe house” to protect him or her against the media, and presumably criminals seeking “to make him an offer he can’t refuse”.

This morning there’s huge panic all over the UK as people wake to find their bank accounts and personal identities compromised in the most dangerous way possible.

Once again we see the perils of allowing a central administration to accumulate vast quantities of information through a system of universal benefits more in tune with the Soviet era than the distributed nature of data in the age of the internet.

What can you do to protect yourself against the kind of scam everyone in the UK is now worried about?

1. Check your bank and credit card statements for the next 5 to 10 years. Criminals can lie low and strike when banks get sloppy again.

2. Change your online banking password, especially if you use family data as a memorable word.

3. Look at your credit report. The information in the Child Benefit Agency records is enough for a criminal to apply for loans, credit cards and even mortgages in your name, as well as other forms of credit such as mobile telephone and catalogue accounts. Your credit report lists all your credit commitments and recent applications for credit, so you can instantly see if someone has been trying to use your ID.

Apart from that, you are at the mercy of Government officials and your bank’s security measures. Ultimately, they must take responsibility for protecting their customer’s data.

Unfortunately, British Government agencies routinely break its own Data Protection Act. The shambles goes on.

The long-expected credit crunch linked to massive failure in the American sub-prime market really hit home yesterday.

The European Central Bank, regulator of the Eurozone group of countries, piled into the markets with $130 billion of cheap, emergency credit.

The move, the biggest central bank intervention since 9/11, came after reports that commercial lenders were desperately hauling back the supply of loans. The French giant BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from three of its investment funds because of their exposure to the U.S. sub-prime market, saying “There has been a complete evaporation of liquidity” from credit markets, which could escalate into a worldwide credit squeeze.

Rumours were rife of impending fund meltdowns and banking collapses. Trevor Williams of Lloyds TSB said, “Liquidity has dried up basically. It’s a moment of panic.”

Nick Sparks, risk manager at F&C Partners, said, “People have got caught out. There will be more pain to come.”

You have been warned.