If you are a small business owner, or work for one, you may like to read a post on how to cope with the likelihood of a forthcoming recession — even worldwide depression.

“Clearly, we’re in for the roughest of rides over the next two years, and possibly longer. Although interest rates are tumbling and will continue to do so, even in the eurozone, the increasing lack of liquidity around the world as banks horde cash, Scrooge-like, will permit little flexibility.”

Of course, some people get rich in the harshest of climates by betting on market falls. Given that it’s the new markets in financial instruments and derivatives that started this off in the first place, it’s ironic that some savvy souls will probably make billions out of other people’s misery.

Read the post in Small Business Booster.

The long-expected credit crunch linked to massive failure in the American sub-prime market really hit home yesterday.

The European Central Bank, regulator of the Eurozone group of countries, piled into the markets with $130 billion of cheap, emergency credit.

The move, the biggest central bank intervention since 9/11, came after reports that commercial lenders were desperately hauling back the supply of loans. The French giant BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from three of its investment funds because of their exposure to the U.S. sub-prime market, saying “There has been a complete evaporation of liquidity” from credit markets, which could escalate into a worldwide credit squeeze.

Rumours were rife of impending fund meltdowns and banking collapses. Trevor Williams of Lloyds TSB said, “Liquidity has dried up basically. It’s a moment of panic.”

Nick Sparks, risk manager at F&C Partners, said, “People have got caught out. There will be more pain to come.”

You have been warned.

It’s emerging that the British tax authority Revenue & Customs believes tens of thousands of buy-to-let landlords are error-prone in their tax returns. So much so that reports have suggested a crackdown by the Revenue.

However, a spokesman responds, “The idea that we’re dragging in hordes of buy-to-let investors to face some medieval inquisition is just so wide of the mark.” They are, he said, worried that many people are confused about the tax regime, and up to 80,000 may be paying the wrong amount.

Letting property carries a much more complex tax calculation than the normal buying and selling of houses. In many cases it may be that investors are not claiming all their allowances and therefore overpaying.

There is a long list of expenses that can be claimed against rental income. The most obvious one is interest on any mortgages used to buy the property. Capital repayments, however, are not covered by this.

Landlords can also claim 10 percent of annual rental for “wear and tear”, effectively depreciation of furnishings, fittings and the fabric of the house. Insurance is also deductible, as are fees paid to managing agents. Legal and accounting fees are included too.

If you sell the property you must pay 40 percent capital gains on the profit, unlike your main residence which is exempt. However, the first £9,200 of profits in any year are free from tax.

If you have owned the property for more than three years, you can save 40 percent on CGT, and there’s further relief if you have lived in the property. One ploy used by canny landlords is to let their own house for six months, while living themselves in a rental property due for sale, thus eliminating CGT altogether.

As with any relationship with the Revenue, it pays to be on top of the detail.

In the UK, buy-to-let property has been a top target for many investors, big and small. Many people are entering the thriving market as a substitute for pensions.

Now, it seems, the prospects are not so good, as interest rates rise, putting pressure on borrowers, and house prices start to fall. Worse, landlords will be hit harder than the lenders in the prevailing conditions.

Indicative of this, the share price of Paragon, Britain’s biggest buy-to-let lender, has fallen 20 percent this year. This is despite the firm being the most conservative mortgage lender in the sector. Only 0.15 percent of its lending book is in arrears, compared with 0.64 percent across the buy-to-let market, and 0.89 percent in the mortgage sector as a whole.

The company asserts, however, that landlords generate 125 percent of their mortage costs, giving Paragon some protection from a downturn. Similarly, it makes 90 percent of its money from its backbook, so plummeting mortgage applications won’t hit it very hard.

Paragon shares might just be a good buy, despite the state of the market. Whether landlords with their pensions tied up in property will see it that way, remains to be seen. Play it long, is good advice here.