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The Money Log

UK Share Tips for 2007

The UK Mail on Sunday has five top share tips for British investors.

Pointing out that 2006 was a much better year than predicted, the runes say that the coming 12 months will be “rocky”. However, we’re assured that the following stocks will perform well whatever the state of the markets :

1. Barclays : This is one of the world’s top banks with a strong High Street network of retail branches, as well a top flight investment bank. It also boasts a very successful fund management division with fast-growing international business interests. Its shares are rising because it has become the subject of a number of takeover attempts in recent times.

2. Biffa : This company collects, treats and recycles rubbish (garbage) for 80,000 customers worldwide. Biffa has been quoted on the London Stock Exchange since October 2006. Prior to its IPO it was part of Severn Trent Water company. The sector is a buoyant one and, it’s believed, Biffa’s management team will make the most of it.

3. Halfords : While the retail sector is expected to be flaky for most businesses, Halfords may well be the exception. It’s the largest seller of car and bycycle parts in the UK and has benefited from a raft of safety legislation in recent years. Analysts expect it to perform well in 2007.

4. CONCATENO : This company is involved in testing for drugs and alcohol — a growing service across the board — advising companies from building to shipping. It works with a number of public sector bodies. It is expected to come into its own this year and trades on the AIM (Alternative Investment Market).

5. Afren : Afren is an oil and gas exploration company run by a former head of OPEC. Its mission is in Africa and is seen as helping rather than exploiting local resources. Many experts think its time has come and it should rise well above its 57p share price in the year ahead.

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The Financial Hurricane Season

Writing in The Times (London) today, Anatole Kaletsky reminds us that “the financial hurricane season” is now upon us.

“Nearly all the greatest financial accidents — the Wall Street crashes of 1929 and 1987, Nixon’s closure of the Bretton Woods gold window in 1971, the Asian currency crisis of 1997, the Mexican and Russian defaults, the attack on the French franc in 1993, the sterling devaluations of 1949, 1976 and 1992 — have occurred between late August and October”.

On Wall Street buyers generally hold off until Hallowe’en, on October 31, while selling is automatic for various reasons: “…selling of equities is partly a passive phenomenon, since portfolios have to be liquidated when their owners die or cash retirement cheques or make insurance claims.

“These liquidations happen steadily through the year, regardless of seasons. Buying, on the other hand, requires conscious decisions and investors are less likely to make these when they and their brokers are away on holiday.”

So the next couple of months will be crucial for financial markets. Have yourself a safe financial hurricane season.

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How To Start a Business: 5. Due Diligence

If you are buying an existing business as a way to avoid the uncertainties of the startup phase, you’ll need to do “due diligence” on it before committing yourself and your investors to the deal. So, what is due diligence?

Essentially it’s the process of going through the books, examining current trading information, details of investment plans, commitments and liabilities. It should give an indication of any flaws in the setup, any skeletons in the cupboard.

For a listed company, it can ensure that shareholders receive the highest price and set off an auction process. It is disruptive to the target company which has no certainty that anything at all will come of the process.

Most companies like to keep closed books so that sensitive information doesn’t fall into the hands of rival firms who may just be fishing for confidential data.

The system isn’t foolproof either, in that investigating lawyers and accountants can run up huge bills without guarantee of accuracy.

Additionally, in the new world order, after Enron, we know that some companies have kept a second, secret set of accounts.

But for buying small-to-medium businesses, it would be unthinkable to go ahead without some form of due diligence, if only by the prospective buyers themselves.

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Michael O’Higgins’s Dogs Do Best in Shares

In the UK, shares included in the FTSE 100 are around 5pc down on an April high. However, The Financial Mail is following a stategy that counters this trend:

The Dogs of the Footsie approach is based on a theory conceived by American fund manager Michael O’Higgins. We buy shares in the ten Footsie companies with the highest percentage yield — their predicted annual dividends divided by current share price.

Then, every three months or so, we check to see how the list of top ten yielders has changed. Companies might drop out because their share prices have risen or forecast dividends have been cut ; and they might move into the top ten if dividend forecasts have increased or their share prices have fallen.

We sell shares in the companies that drop out and reinvest that money equally in companies that have moved into the top ten.

In assessing the performance of our investments, we look only at share price. We do not take into account dividend income received.

Since the Mail’s portfolio was launched in 2001, the Footsie 100 has risen about 4pc, so an investment of 10,000 units would now be worth 10,400 units.

On the same basis, however, the Mail’s portfolio would be worth 17,493, a gain of almost 75pc.

It seems like Dogs really do run faster.

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