Posted in Banks, Earnings, Finance, Internet, Investment, LSE, Markets, Money, NYSE, Nasdaq, Shares, Stock Exchange
Writing in The Times (London) today, Anatole Kaletsky reminds us that “the financial hurricane season” is now upon us.
“Nearly all the greatest financial accidents — the Wall Street crashes of 1929 and 1987, Nixon’s closure of the Bretton Woods gold window in 1971, the Asian currency crisis of 1997, the Mexican and Russian defaults, the attack on the French franc in 1993, the sterling devaluations of 1949, 1976 and 1992 — have occurred between late August and October”.
On Wall Street buyers generally hold off until Hallowe’en, on October 31, while selling is automatic for various reasons: “…selling of equities is partly a passive phenomenon, since portfolios have to be liquidated when their owners die or cash retirement cheques or make insurance claims.
“These liquidations happen steadily through the year, regardless of seasons. Buying, on the other hand, requires conscious decisions and investors are less likely to make these when they and their brokers are away on holiday.”
So the next couple of months will be crucial for financial markets. Have yourself a safe financial hurricane season.
Posted in Finance, Investment, LSE, Markets, Money, Share Clubs, Shares, Stock Exchange, Stock Exchanges
In the UK, shares included in the FTSE 100 are around 5pc down on an April high. However, The Financial Mail is following a stategy that counters this trend:
The Dogs of the Footsie approach is based on a theory conceived by American fund manager Michael O’Higgins. We buy shares in the ten Footsie companies with the highest percentage yield — their predicted annual dividends divided by current share price.
Then, every three months or so, we check to see how the list of top ten yielders has changed. Companies might drop out because their share prices have risen or forecast dividends have been cut ; and they might move into the top ten if dividend forecasts have increased or their share prices have fallen.
We sell shares in the companies that drop out and reinvest that money equally in companies that have moved into the top ten.
In assessing the performance of our investments, we look only at share price. We do not take into account dividend income received.
Since the Mail’s portfolio was launched in 2001, the Footsie 100 has risen about 4pc, so an investment of 10,000 units would now be worth 10,400 units.
On the same basis, however, the Mail’s portfolio would be worth 17,493, a gain of almost 75pc.
It seems like Dogs really do run faster.
Posted in Business Systems, Earnings, Finance, Investment, Markets, Money, Shares, Stock Exchange
Whether that puts old Jonesy up there with the oldest person still alive is anyone’s guess, but it’s a cracking age for a “scientific” metric.
Readers of this blog will surely know that the Dow Jones is a 30-company index of industrial share value on Wall Street. Created by Charles Dow, editor of The Wall Street Journal, it started with just 12 constituent companies.
Changes to the Dow are rare and at the whim of individual editors conscious of the tradition. They don’t deal much with market capitalizations or other measures.
Times Business comments: “It’s unscientific and market professionals mostly use the S&P 500. But for many it remains the unquestioned barometer of US capitalism.”
Let’s hope the old Dow continues sailing away from the sunset.
Posted in Blogs, Finance, Investment, Markets, Money, Shares, Stock Exchange
Times Business, which rather quaintly runs a money blog on Typepad, produces a few comparison stats to show that this is the case:
“In nearly eight days, the FTSE 100 list of top companies is down around 6 per cent, while the Small Cap index has fallen by nearly 7 per cent. But the big falls have been in the FTSE 250 index of middling companies, off 9 per cent, and on the Alternative Investment Market, which has slumped by more than 10 per cent.”
This shows that “the shares that have flown highest this year, the mid-250 stocks and those on AIM, have been burned most.”
There appears to be a consensus among analysts that certain sectors are looking overblown for smaller companies, for example, oil and gas, mining, property and general financial. “They could be badly hit if, as one or two speakers suggested, the whole stock market continues to look sickly for the next several weeks or even months.”