Venture capitalist, Paul Graham has written another excellent piece on web startups. His message is that there will be more and more of them.

So my first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold you have to get over is whether you have the courage to. Even that threshold is getting lower, as people watch others take the plunge and survive. In the last batch of startups we funded, we had several founders who said they’d thought of applying before, but weren’t sure and got jobs instead. It was only after hearing reports of friends who’d done it that they decided to try it themselves.

He believes that, although, starting a web business is difficult, it’s nothing like as soul-destroying as a 9-5 job.

In a startup you have lots of worries, but you don’t have that feeling that your life is flying by like you do in a big company. Plus in a startup you could make orders of magnitude more money. If the number of startups increases dramatically, then the people whose job is to judge startups are going to have to get better at it. I’m thinking particularly of investors and acquirers. We now get on the order of 1000 applications a year. What are we going to do if we get 10,000?

It’s hard to imagine the internet ever getting full up, so the prospects are there for anyone with a good idea, technical know-how and the initiative to carry it through.

Read the whole of the article.

Many new entrepreneurs are uncertain about the rules for engaging with venture capitalists. How does a deal benefit a startup? What are the essential calculations involved?

Paul Graham has done an in-depth analysis of this perennial teaser for new business owners.

If a venture capitalist offers you a certain sum of money in exchange for a shareholding in your startup, what are the rules governing these deals and how much of your business should you part with?

The answer apparently is : 1/(1 - n)

Whenever you’re trading stock in your company for anything … the test for whether to do it is the same. You should give up n percent of your company if what you trade it for improves your average outcome enough that the (100 - n) percent you have left is worth more than the whole company was before. For example, if an investor wants to buy half your company, how much does that investment have to improve your average outcome for you to break even? Obviously it has to double: if you trade half your company for something that more than doubles the company’s average outcome, you’re net ahead. You have half as big a share of something worth more than twice as much. In the general case, if n is the fraction of the company you’re giving up, the deal is a good one if it makes the company worth more than 1/(1 - n).

If you are in this scenario, you will have to go through a lot of hoops to get funding. It’s not a decision to take lightly. You will also lose much of your control of your business idea. Equally, a VC company will receive many business plans a year, some as many as 6000. They will probably fund around 20 of them.